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Evaluating the impact of PADO (the Montevideo hot spot policing programme) and changes in the levels of robberies in Montevideo, Uruguay
PADO (Programa de Alta Dedicacón Operativa) has been operating in Montevideo, Uruguay since April 2016, and currently involves over 850 police dedicated to the programme. Prior to 2016, for each year in the previous 10 years recorded levels of rapiñas (robberies) in Montevideo had increased. In 2016, recorded levels of rapiñas in Montevideo reduced by 6%. The largest reduction in rapiñas was in the areas were PADO was deployed, which experienced a 23% reduction in rapiñas. The first independent evaluation of PADO between April – December 2016 also found no evidence of displacement of rapiñas to other parts of the city (Chainey, Serrano, and Veneri, 2017). The results from the first evaluation of PADO identified that PADO had resulted in a statistically significant reduction in rapiñas in Montevideo. Since the latter part of 2017 rapiñas have significantly increased. Whilst several reasons have been suggested for this increase, determining with clear evidence the reasons for this increase has been problematic due to the lack of control areas for measuring the impact of PADO, incomplete data on the use of tablets, and the lack of data to directly measure the extent to which changes in the Penal Code have affected changes in the offending of rapiñas. Our research unpicks the reasons for the increase in rapiñas and examines if PADO conitinues to exert an effect in reducing robberies.
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