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Publication Detail
Propagating uncertainty in a network of energy models
  • Publication Type:
  • Authors:
    Volodina V, Sonenberg N, Smith JQ, Challenor PG, Dent CJ, Wynn HP
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  • Publication date:
  • Published proceedings:
    2022 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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  • Name of conference:
    2022 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
  • Conference place:
    Manchester, UK
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  • Notes:
    This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Computer models are widely used in decision support for energy systems operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by different teams of experts. Gaussian Process emulators can be used to approximate the behaviour of complex, computationally intensive models and used to generate predictions together with a measure of uncertainty about the predicted model output. This paper presents a computationally efficient framework for propagating uncertainty within a network of models with high-dimensional outputs used for energy planning. We present a case study from a UK county council considering low carbon technologies to transform its infrastructure to reach a net-zero carbon target. The system model considered for this case study is simple, however the framework can be applied to larger networks of more complex models.
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