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Publication Detail
Scenarios, backcasts, forecasts and visions of a hydrogen economy: revisiting the hydrogen futures literature
  • Publication Type:
    Poster
  • Authors:
    McDowall WAS, Baxter J, Eames M
  • Presented date:
    2012
  • Presented at:
    World Hydrogen Energy Conference
  • Location:
    Toronto
  • Keywords:
    Scenarios, hydrogen energy
Abstract
The hydrogen energy arena has seen a proliferation of futures studies: scenarios, forecasts, roadmaps and visions that describe what a hydrogen future might look like, and how it might be achieved. Such studies not only inform our understanding of the key issues at stake, they also help create shared expectations that play a role in mobilizing the resources necessary for their realisation. In 2006, the current authors published a review of 40 such studies that examined the state of the art of futures studies in the hydrogen field, and interrogated the literature for insight into the drivers, barriers, and possible transitions for hydrogen. Here, six years on, we present an update of that review, assessing how the future of hydrogen has changed with a review of over 30 hydrogen futures studies published between 2006-2011. We draw conclusions concerning: how has our understanding of a hydrogen future changed?; What are methodological improvements since 2006, and what knowledge gaps remain? What does the literature tell us about the evolution of the hydrogen innovation system and prospects for its growth?
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