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Publication Detail
Hybrid Epidemics - A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker
  • Publication Type:
    Journal article
  • Authors:
    Zhang C, Zhou S, Chain BM
  • Publication date:
    22/06/2014
  • Journal:
    PLoS One
  • Volume:
    10
  • Issue:
    5
  • Article number:
    e0127478
  • Status:
    Published
  • Keywords:
    cs.CR, cs.CR, cs.NI
  • Notes:
    © 2015 Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
Abstract
Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading, local, neighbourhood and global to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conifcker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the trade-off between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.
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