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Publication Detail
The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation
  • Publication Type:
    Journal article
  • Publication Sub Type:
    Article
  • Authors:
    Mander SL, Bows A, Anderson KL, Shackley S, Agnolucci P, Ekins P
  • Publisher:
    ELSEVIER SCI LTD
  • Publication date:
    10/2008
  • Pagination:
    3754, 3763
  • Journal:
    ENERG POLICY
  • Volume:
    36
  • Issue:
    10
  • Print ISSN:
    0301-4215
  • Language:
    EN
  • Keywords:
    Energy scenarios, Backcasting, UK, CLIMATE-CHANGE, POLICY, UK, 60-PERCENT, VISIONS, FUTURES
  • Addresses:
    Mander, SL
    Univ Manchester
    Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res
    Manchester
    Lancs
    England
Abstract
The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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